Three things we learned from the advanced stats from Auburn’s win over Duke
As Auburn women's tennis heads to the Elite Eight, here's a deeper dive into the stats that reflect how the Tigers are playing.
Auburn women’s tennis vies for the national championship this weekend, one of the last eight teams standing in the NCAA Tournament.
Auburn rematches LSU at 9 a.m. Friday in Athens, Ga., in the national quarterfinals. All eight teams left are headed to Athens as host of the NCAA Championship at the University of Georgia’s facility, with the quarterfinals set for Friday, the semifinals set for Saturday and the national championship match set for Sunday.
Auburn advanced to the final site by way of a history-making win over Duke in the Sweet Sixteen last Friday. Angella Okutoyi put together a thrilling reversal in her match to clinch it for the Tigers. As the Tigers move to the Elite Eight, there’s more to take away from the Sweet Sixteen win.
Here are three things to glean from the stats from Auburn’s win last Friday against Duke:
Ava Esposito’s big serve does damage
Once Friday’s match moved indoors due to the rain, it was no surprise head coach Jordan Szabo would go with Ava Esposito on Court 6.
She rewarded him with a big singles win that helped clinched the 4-2 victory — and proved him right.
Zooming out: In the only true “position battle” still going this late in the season, Auburn has gone to a couple of different starting options on Court 6:
Esposito, a tall, 5-foot-11 Southpaw with a big serve, who’s gotten nine starts on Court 6 this season and 19 in total
Eva Ionescu, a freshman January enrollee who plays more on the baseline and thrives in longer rallies, who’s earned eight starts on Court 6 and 16 starts in total
Esposito has been a big part of the team’s success all year and is in the nation’s No. 2-ranked doubles team alongside DJ Bennett. Ionescu, however, came up big for the Tigers in the SEC Tournament final against LSU, subbing in for Esposito on Court 6 and winning against a player who Esposito lost to during the regular season in Baton Rouge.
Ionescu gave that player a different look from what she saw from Esposito in the regular season, and it worked: The different matchup resulted in a different result.
It was Esposito, though, who got the starting nod against Duke. Szabo said in his press conference before the start of the NCAA Tournament that conditions could play a role in who got that starting nod, saying that Esposito with her big serve could fare better in hot conditions or indoors when the ball is moving faster, while saying that Ionescu who thrives on those longer rallies could benefit from colder, slower conditions.
In the Duke match, Esposito has the best percentage of first-serve points of anyone in the match.
Her three aces also tied teammate Ashton Bowers for a match-best. When Esposito got her big first serve in, she won her point 77% of the time. It’s an aggressive swing: She landed her first serve in only 56% of the time, third-lowest of the match, but when she hit it, it paid off, often.
Yu also had the match’s second-lowest percentage in total return points — the times she won the point when not serving.
Esposito defeated Eleana Yu in straight sets after a second-set tiebreaker, 6-2, 7-6 (7-3).
